Fixed On Bonds

Premier Miton’s bond blog

Yep, saving the planet is definitely inflationary

We’ve firmly been in “camp transitory” when it comes to inflation but nonetheless have also been very worried that inflation could be stickier than both the market and central bankers think. It was clear to us that supply disruption, particularly supply chains that interacted with China, as well as those reliant on semiconductors, could be an …

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Central Banks – Pandemic end game in sight

The rise of the pandemic across the world resulted in unprecedented support from governments and central banks alike. Whilst furlough and company support schemes were rolled out by respective governments across the western world, central banks also went to town in their levels of monetary easing…

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Short-term inflation, long-term deflation

We talked previously about our worries that in the short-term, inflation is likely to be an issue for the global economy. And we are still very worried – worried that supply disruption induced “transitory” inflation could last well into next year and possibly even 2023…

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Man Evaluating Energy Efficiency Of Renewables
ESG – an exponential breaking of business models

Many businesses over the last couple of years have encountered incredible stresses on their business models, with lockdowns and stay at home orders having lasting impacts on their long term viability.Bricks and mortar retail along with the commercial real estate companies …

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Sun, Sand and Summer Liquidity

So it’s that time of the year, a great opportunity to reflect, relax and rejuvenate as the summer months bring a sense of calm to the markets and we all go on holiday to recharge…err…who am I kidding! As we all know, this is no typical year and no typical summer and as active investors we need to continue to be on our ‘investment toes’ as well as on the beach…

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We aren’t going to Ibiza?

Personally, I don’t think the Vengaboys would have had as much success in the late 90s – early 2000’s if they embraced going to Scarborough instead of the party island of Ibiza, but it looks like we are going to be forced to do so this year. Staycation was a term unbeknownst to the majority of people pre-pandemic but has since become a staple of the English lexicon…

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The Kansas tornado

“Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.” – L. Frank Baum We’ve recently talked of the inflationary dynamics as we emerge from the pandemic. We’ve also talked about forward looking data and commentary being incredibly instructive as to what is actually being seen on the ground by businesses. Just like Dorothy in the …

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The Great Liquidity Debate Part 1 – Time to unlock the bonds!

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there is still one topic which continues to be debated with numerous opinions between traders, fund managers and investors alike…the state of secondary market liquidity in the corporate bond market. The COVID March 20 sell off brought liquidity conversations to front and centre again, highlighting the need for a …

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Shot induced shortages!

My builder tells me there’s a shortage of cement and timber, the bike shop says there are no bikes and that tyres are now twice the price to source. The Ford salesperson can’t deliver a transit van for a year. There are semiconductor shortages. Is this going to alleviate any time soon?

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A Moment in the Sun

Being an analyst covering the banks sector has been a pretty thankless task for most of the last 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis almost destroyed the sector. Light touch regulation in the preceding years had left a bank system with extremely high leverage with little capacity to cope with losses should they arise.

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all that gliiters is not green
All that glitters is not green

Were there a trend to define capital markets in 2020 (pandemic-induced volatility aside), I’d have classified it as the year ESG went mainstream. Of course, ESG factors have been discussed and debated for some time.

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US Flag
The US is truly exceptional!

You may or may not be familiar with the term US exceptionalism, this is distinct from “American exceptionalism” I might add and only a financial term. In a nutshell it is the concept that US assets look more attractive than those outside of the US, which leads to inflows from the rest of the world i.e. other emerging AND developed markets and subsequently …

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good is bad
When good is bad

With the US dollar the globe’s reserve currency, as US treasury yields rise, the reference rate for borrowing across the planet also goes up. There is obviously a clear link between this “risk-free” rate and the rate at which “risky” entities borrow money, be they companies or other governments (typically emerging markets).

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It’s not just bonds that have duration!

As I sit in the office at home, I casually glance at the Nasdaq performance over the last few years and the performance has been startling! In the last five years alone the Nasdaq has more than trebled – significantly outperforming most other indices. The rise has been meteoric and according to some market commentators valuations appear stretched.

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revolution mining and ESG momentum.
An underground revolution: metals, mining and ESG momentum

Mining and ESG in the same sentence? A contradiction, surely! Indeed, S&P rank the metals and mining sector as being the second-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, waste, and pollution, narrowly behind the oil & gas sector.

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rock and a hard place
“Markets with no downside…”

I’ve heard this a few times lately from people (socially distanced of course, I’m sure it would have been down the pub a year ago). ”Have you seen Tesla?” they say, Apple, even bitcoin at $1m has also been mentioned. There’s no downside they say, central banks will come to the rescue, good news is good …

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Where can an investor find high yield from investment grade issuers?

Where can an investor find high yield from investment grade issuers? Sounds unlikely doesn’t it, particularly in a world of quantitative easing where central banks are deliberately keeping yields on nearly all bonds at record low levels…

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It’s good to talk!

So the dream was always to work from home. I’d heard about those traders sitting in a villa on a beach executing orders with a Pina colada in hand. Well now the dream turned into reality, albeit for reasons that I would have never imagined or wanted. I was at my desk, my screens were set up, my daughter was screaming in the background and I was ready to go, would my WiFi rise up to the challenge!…….

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The Premier Miton fixed income team

Whilst it might seem a long time ago now as we are in the midst of the wintery months Lloyd Harris, Rob James and I set foot into Premier Miton, to start our tenure in the Fixed Income team. The glorious summer that the UK had enjoyed set the tone …

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