Not in it for the duration

There has scarcely been a better time not to own duration risk, just look at the shape of the yield curve.

Winter is here

Six months ago, I was cautiously concerned about the impending ‘Winter of Doom’ descending on Europe. And winter is finally here now. Or is it?

Scaling the wall of worry

Solo Man Climbs Rock Wall

Back in March, shortly after Russia had invaded Ukraine, driving both energy and food prices higher, I wrote that the sharply negative reaction in markets might have been driven by fears over the sustainability of bank dividend distributions to both their shareholders and AT1 bondholders

Safer asset bonanza

It may not feel like it, but investing is getting much easier. It is now possible to get better returns and take on less risk. Whilst inflation is at eye watering levels at the moment, it will not remain there and over any reasonable investing time horizon (i.e. 3-5 years) things are really looking up.

European governments will have to spend to accommodate inflation

It appears that we are staring down the barrel of a gun with regards to energy driven inflation in Europe this winter. We talked back in May 2021 about the potential for kinked supply curves to emerge whereby beyond a particular level of supply constraint, the price goes parabolic….

Winter is coming

Abhayjeet Singh Bal, credit analyst in Pemier Miton’s fixed income team, explains why they remain underweight in Europe as a result of continuing concerns about the impact of the energy crisis on European companies.

Is there a scenario whereby recession equals even more inflation?

The current narrative reads that we have high inflation and central banks are getting serious about tackling it. This will result in lower growth and with lower growth comes lower demand which will automatically bring down inflation. There is another, more worrying scenario that could play out, especially in Europe.

Does Elon have a point?

Whilst ESG scores are supposed to represent strong Environmental, Social and Governance credentials, S&P’s latest update to the S&P ESG Index has firmly cemented the topic as a grey area for investors.